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I should note that I don't think Perry's collapse or Gingrich's surge are particularly stable trends. Either could be reversed, and quickly. Perry could rise again thanks to the huge amount of funds he has on hand, but he'd need something beyond just that. At the same time, Gingrich could collapse because he is one of the most hypocritical American politicians today (and that's saying something). Still, I think Gingrich's strong poll numbers are less transient than Cain's (that's not saying something) and it's interesting to realize, once again, that political fortunes are impossible to predict.
A little back story might be helpful. You may already know this, but in early June, all of Gingrich's paid staff in Iowa quit en masse. A lot of other major campaign figures in other states quit as well. Pretty much every pundit declared Newt's campaign dead. I disliked the suggested finality of "dead," but I agreed with the basic verdict.
Then, beginning about a week ago, he began climbing pretty rapidly. I would love to see an analysis of what triggered this, but alas I haven't found any lengthy look. What I have read, however, is Matt Bai's quick analysis. I like Bai's work, and his take on the Gingrich-rise, while pretty short, is still pretty informative. Hopefully this little blurb will provide a slightly better idea of why "presidential politics so routinely confounds us." test edit
P.S. Aquas de Marco is my most played on itunes. Admittedly there aren't many other contenders, but it is beating out International Players Anthem, arguably one of the greatest songs of our generation.
I don't think I am totally sold. Up until this point the Republican Nomination has pretty steadily followed a Flavor of the Week trend and I think it is too early to be declaring Gingrich the one that breaks that cycle. I don't think Gingrich's rise is a testament to his persistence or his durability when everyone else called him dead in the water. I would sooner believe that it is a testament to this weird cycle of candidate desperation that the Republican party is facing.
ReplyDeleteI can understand why Gingrich's experience is a factor. Considering how long he has been around the odds are less likely that we will find out some game breaking flaw in his candidacy like when America discovered that Bachman was a maniac, or that Perry was an idiot or that Cain was both an idiot and apparently a sexual deviant.
That aside, Gingrich has failed in the past and I am sooner to believe that he will fail again in the present. I am more prone to believe that even Ron Paul will have his 15 minutes of fame at the top of the polls sooner than Gingrich will be locking the nomination. When its all said and done I think each candidate will be exhausted and the party will be left with Romney to turn to.
Of course like you said these things are unpredictable. Your guess is as good as mine as to what will happen next. All im saying is that Gingrich's surge does nothing to shake my notion that each candidate will have their little time in the limelight before Romney's time comes.